• Jared Goff’s four-year, $212 million extension will have reverberations on the quarterback market, for sure, and we’ll get to those. But it’s important to start here—what a phenomenal story. And to tell that story you really do need to go back to 2021, when then-new Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes were tasked with moving Matthew Stafford, and found a partner in the Los Angeles Rams.
Goff’s stock couldn’t have been lower at that point. After weeks of speculation, with the Rams steadily messaging they might be looking around at quarterback, Goff’s big contract, signed less than 17 months earlier, was part of the deal that brought Stafford to Los Angeles. And “contract,” at the time, was the key word, with Goff’s inclusion in a deal that also sent two first-round picks and a third-rounder to Detroit widely seen as a salary dump.
Holmes, who’d been with Goff in L.A., swore it wasn’t. Campbell, who’d been immensely impressed with Goff’s composure in the 2018 NFC title game (Cambell was on the wrong end of that one as a Saints assistant) at the Superdome, said the same things. And it turned out, it was a lot more than just lip service.
In fact, with the Lions continuing to show their belief in the former No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, they were getting a level of performance not far off from what Stafford gave the Rams, if off at all. Stafford has Goff in yards per game (266.8–255.4) over the past three years, but Goff has a better passer rating (96.5–95.8) and has thrown for more touchdowns (78–75) and fewer interceptions (27–36) than Stafford over that span, and he’s been more durable, too.
His new deal, at $53 million per year, is also $13 million more per year, at least on paper, than the extension Stafford did two years ago—with both of those deals done with a year left on existing deals.
Now, to be sure, Stafford has been for the Rams. He’s won a Super Bowl, and that makes the trade a roaring success, end of story. Beyond just that, he was great last year, leading a rebuilding roster carrying $75 million in dead money to the playoffs. So in no way is this meant to denigrate Stafford. I actually think, if anything, he’s underrated, and should be mentioned among the top five guys at the position.
That said, most folks would’ve guessed three years ago that Goff would be long gone from the Lions’ roster by now. Instead, he’s statistically matched Stafford, served as a centerpiece for Detroit’s rebuild, which has the team in as strong a position as it’s been in since the 1950s, and now is entrenched, at 29, as Detroit’s quarterback for now the foreseeable future.
Which is remarkable when you think of where Goff was at after he was traded in January 2021.
• And now, we can get to how this might impact other quarterbacks in the coming months, so let’s start with the details I have been able to dig up since the deal got done Monday.
Goff gets a $73 million signing bonus (paid out in installments). He’s due $125 million over the first two years of the deal, and $165 million over its first three years. The structure, via rolling guarantees, would make it tough for Detroit to bail over the first four years of the contract. The fifth year, with $57 million all-in, is a true option year, with no guaranteed money (even eliminating that, the contract is more than $51 million per year in new money).
Goff’s deal is very good news for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Green Bay Packers signal-caller Jordan Love this year, and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy next year. Prior to Goff’s deal, it’d have been easy for their teams to say the $50 million class (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts) was irrelevant to their negotiations. But with Kirk Cousins now at $45 million per year, and Goff in the $50 million club, all three would be justified in asking to get to that range.
But Goff’s deal sure won’t help the Dolphins, Packers or 49ers if they were looking to get a little home discount on their quarterback deals.
